Monday, October 27, 2008

Am I boring you yet?

Okay, in addition to the low-key excitement I feel in Alaska giving a senate seat to the Democrats, there are some other big senate races that I've been looking at lately. The most highly-contested elections all lean heavily toward the Dems taking more Republican seats.

In Georgia, Republicans have trounced the last two elections. But this year, the Dem candidate (Jim Martin) is only 2% behind incumbent Saxby Chambliss. Of course, seeing as how Georgia has gotten an early start in disrupting peoples' right to vote, that's a big 2%. There's also the obstacle of having to run against an opponent with such a cool name.

In Kentucky, 4-term Mitch McConnell won his last re-election (in 2002) 65-35%. Somehow, his lead over the latest Dem challenger (Bruce Lunsford) has shrunk down below 4%! I'd be amazed if the seat changed hands. The polls vary widely for this one though... last week, one had him at +7%, and another had them at dead even.

In Minnesota, of course, there's Al Franken. He's split the polls with incumbent Norm Coleman. Actually, most polls put Franken ahead, but a couple lopsided ones for Coleman average them out.

When Franken first got his show on Air America Radio, I called in and spoke with him, once, in mid-2004. He was of the belief that somehow the voter suppression bullshit that plagued the 2000 election would no longer be a factor. He actually said - seriously - that congress would fix the system. I called him naive, though I used nicer words. I wonder how he feels about it these days... more importantly, I wonder how he'll feel about it if he loses this election.

Mega-Republican voting Mississippi is somehow a contest. The guy that picked up the pieces of Trent Lott's seat in the senate is named Roger Wicker, and he's got barely a lead over some guy named Ronnie Musgrave. Lott used to win his elections by 30%+. His feller senator from Mississippi is Thad Cochran, and he's had his position for 30 years now... I looked him up when I was reading about Wicker v. Musgrave, and saw that he won his last re-election in 2002, by a score of 85-15%. Christ.

In New Hampshire, ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen looks set to rid congress of the vile presence of John Sununu. They went up against each other in 2002, and she lost by 4%; now she's up by 8%.

In New Mexico, it seems a done deal that a Democrat is taking Republican Sen. Pete Domenici's seat. He didn't run for re-election, and Tom Udall is whipping Republican Steve Pearce in the polls. The other senator from NM is Democrat Jeff Bingaman, who has been wicked popular for 25 years now.

The Dems could also possibly take North Carolina, which sounds unreal. A current state senator, Kay Hagan, is actually up a point or two over Elizabeth Dole, hoping for a second term after she took over from Asshole "Jesse" Helms. Taking her out would be huge. Of course John Edwards quit the other seat in 2004, and the current guy is a Republican... I guess that seat has bobbled back and forth between parties for 30 years now.

In Oregon, Gordon Smith, Republican, has held down his chair for about 10 years. Now he's being beat by State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, but only by a little. The other seat is held by a Democrat, who also took it from a Republican 10 years ago.

Lastly, in Virginia, their big-shot 5-term Republican Senator John Warner didn't re-up again, basically handing the seat to wicked popular ex-Gov. Mark Warner, who's up by like 30%... over a Republican, in a supposedly red state. The Republican was actually Warner's predecessor in the governor's mansion, and isn't leprous or anything, but is getting so trounced. Of course, Warner's winning because of that fake, north Virginia.

There, reading I done did for my own demented enjoyment is now yours. It's heartening to see how many seats might well change hands, particularly because next to none of them involve the possibility of a Republican taking a Democrat's existing seat.

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